Moody’s Analytics have forecast a 4% drop nationwide for home values and even more in high-price cities. The National Association of Realtors is even more concerned, estimating a 10% average drop in home values.
That’s music to the ears of progressive proponents of affordable housing (at least until their own home equity drops).
For homeowners, real estate investors and the broader real estate industry? Not quite so musical. More akin to a loud belch in church.
Still, it raises some important questions about what is “normal” home pricing. Were home values “normal” after the housing crash in 2011? Are they “normal” today? Maybe at some point in between, based on some arbitrary wage/home price ratio?
You’ll get a different answer from an affordable housing activist in Queens than you will from a businesswoman on the Upper East Side. In other words, it’s more a matter of political opinion and your existing housing status than it is an easy consensus for economists.