It’s carny season again. Just a tip.
Tamino of the Open Mind Blog has a terrific take-down of a bogus temps graph that’s been making the rounds.
So clear even I can understand it. I’m told it’s burning up Twitter.
Starts with the graph above.
Suppose I wanted to convince people that temperature in the USA wasn’t going up, it was going down. What would I show? Let’s try yearly average temperature in the conterminous U.S., also known as the “lower 48 states” (I’ll just call it “USA”):(see above)
Well that won’t do. It shows that temperature has been rising, not falling. By the way, I’ve included two trend estimates. The blue straight line is a lineartrend estimate and it’s going up. The red curvy line is a nonlinear trend estimate, it has gone up and down and up, and is now rising fast. Scary fast. That…
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