Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics

Our inferences result in herd immunity thresholds around 10-20%, considerably lower than the minimum coverage needed to interrupt transmission by random vaccination, which… is estimated above 60%.

Nevertheless, the percentage of the population required to be immune to curb the epidemic and prevent future waves when interventions are lifted appears remarkably conserved across models: 9.6 vs 11% (Belgium); 20 vs 21% (England); 7.3 vs 6.0% (Portugal); and 12 vs 11% (Spain). This property is further explored below.