All in all, here’s the ugly math, even though I’d bought the bonds after they’d already crashed to 7.675 cents on the dollar:
Outlay: $448.39
Recovery: $105.05, or 23.4%
Loss: 76.6%.
If I had been an original bondholder and paid face value, my recovery would have been $105.05 from $5000, or a 2.1% recovery – for a loss of around 98% – not too far from the typical fate of unsecured creditors in a bankruptcy