The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, after weeks of enormous day-to-day volatility, was back at 6.25% on Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily. Today’s rate was just about even with the June-14 high of 6.28%, before the beautiful summer bear-market rally set in and turned everything upside down for a couple of months. With mortgage rates, that rally has now unwound.
The 1-year Treasury yield jumped by 14 basis points, to 3.61%, the highest since November 2007. The spike started in November 2021, from near 0%. The summer bear-market rally was shallow and is barely visible in the long-term chart:
So now we’re back to basics: The path of inflation, QT ramping up to full speed this month, the coming rate hikes, and still way over-inflated markets, along with speculation about when the Fed would pause to let the higher rates sink in – at 4%? – and let them and QT do their magic hopefully on cooling inflation and the labor market.The Holy-Moly 6.25% Mortgage is Back, Treasury Yields Spike, Summer Bear-Market Rally Unwinds | Wolf Street