New Vehicle Sales Down 19% in Q3 v. Q3 2019, Due to Shortages: I Estimate the Piggybank of Unmet Demand for a Recession | Wolf Street

now there’s this additional wrinkle, triggered by the spike fuel prices: A shift from full-sized trucks and SUVs to vehicles with better fuel economy and to EVs. And supply chains, which are long and complex and go all over the globe, cannot react fast enough for sudden shifts in buying patterns.So, compared to Q3 2019, new vehicle sales plunged by 19%. Compared to three years ago, quarterly declines have been in the 17% to 25% range for the past five quarters in a row. But sales had also been declining in the years before the pandemic.  Compared to Q3 2016, sales were down by 22%. And at 3.48 million vehicles, sales were right back where they’d been in the 1970s.

Over the past four decades, the industry has been stuck essentially in stagnation interrupted by huge declines and recoveries. The troughs before 2021 were related to plunges in demand: the Double Dip Recession in the early 1980s; the 1990-1991 recession; and the Financial Crisis when GM, Chrysler, and a big part of the component makers filed for bankruptcy.

There hasn’t been enough supply to meet demand since spring 2021. There are long waiting lists for various models that people have ordered because there were none in stock. And demand has shifted some toward fuel efficient vehicles. And there are long waiting lists now for those. There are now reports of 2023 model-year production runs having already been sold out, such as for the Ford Maverik hybrid pickup.

New Vehicle Sales Down 19% in Q3 v. Q3 2019, Due to Shortages: I Estimate the Piggybank of Unmet Demand for a Recession | Wolf Street

The ‘free’ market does not seem to be working all that well…. especially when one factors in the 17 countries that the US is ‘sanctioning’. It sounds like the US is doing everyone a favor with ‘sanctions’, but they actually never work, and cause all kinds of negative ‘blowback’.

That does not stop both Republican and Democrat parties from imposing artificial ‘punishments’ consisting of isolation, sending entire nations into a corner with a dunce hat, and trying to make these ‘sanctions’ work over and over again, despite them NEVER working historically.